Published by Watt Utilities | Energy Market Analysis | July 2026
July is usually one of the dearest months for wholesale power, with cold evenings and weak solar. July 2026 was the cheapest July in three years for every mainland state. Prices fell in Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia compared with June, and only Victoria edged higher. This edition unpacks what kept winter prices down and where the risk still sits for businesses approaching a renewal.
This report covers the mainland National Electricity Market (NEM), the wholesale market run by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Spot prices are what generators are paid in that market. They differ from the rate on your bill, but sustained moves feed into the retail contract prices set at renewal. We publish a new edition in the first week of each month, once AEMO data for the month just finished is available.
AT A GLANCE: JULY 2026
- Wholesale spot prices eased in three of four mainland states. South Australia fell 23.7 percent to $95.89 per MWh, Queensland fell 8.4 percent to $65.43 and New South Wales slipped 2.1 percent to $81.52. Victoria was the exception, rising 5.3 percent to $70.36.
- Every mainland state had its cheapest July in three years. South Australia averaged $69 per MWh less than in July 2025, and Queensland was down 20 percent, so winter bills and renewal quotes should read lower than a year ago.
- Forward contracts saw mild upward pressure in the latest ASX market wrap. Calendar 2027 base swaps closed at $87.76 in NSW, $77.05 in QLD, $78.25 in SA and $64.90 in VIC, the cheapest mainland state to contract.
- Coal still supplied 61.3 percent of mainland generation over the past 90 days, with renewables and storage at 34.7 percent. That coal reliance is why a drop in wind still pushes evening prices sharply higher.
- July’s price story sits in the gap between the grid’s renewable high of 69.9 percent and its overnight low of 17.8 percent. The full report shows what that range means for locking in.
NEM Average Spot Price: June vs July 2026
NEM Average Spot Price: June 2026 vs July 2026 ($/MWh)
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY monthly exports).
| State | Jun-26 ($/MWh) | Jul-26 ($/MWh) |
|---|
| NSW | 83.30 | 81.52 |
| QLD | 71.43 | 65.43 |
| SA | 125.73 | 95.89 |
| VIC | 66.81 | 70.36 |
South Australia swung between extremes. Strong wind produced four days with a negative daily average, then low wind late in the month pushed the SA daily average to $388.54 on Thursday 30 July. Victoria was the only state to rise, after a $359.04 day on Wednesday 8 July when wind output across the NEM fell below 1,000 MW. Queensland was the cheapest mainland state at $65.43 per MWh.
What’s in the full report
- State by state breakdown for QLD, NSW, VIC and SA, with daily price charts and the drivers behind each move.
- Contracting Outlook: the latest ASX forward prices for calendar 2027 and 2028 read into plain-language guidance on whether to lock in, wait, or hedge in parts.
- Renewable Records: the grid’s highest and lowest renewable moments in July and what the volatility range means for price risk.
- The 90-day fuel mix and what the coal versus renewables split means for your exposure.
- Watt’s News, including a new Energy Manager joining the team, and verified Industry News for the month.
Get the full report
Enter your details and we will email you access to the full July 2026 Commercial Energy Market Report.
Thanks. Check your inbox for an email from Watt Utilities with your access to the full report. If it does not arrive within a few minutes, check your spam folder or email us at info@wattutilities.com.au.
Want tailored advice on your own sites and renewals? Watt Utilities has brokered commercial energy since 2006.
Talk to our team 
