July is usually one of the dearest months for wholesale power, with cold evenings and weak solar. July 2026 was the cheapest July in three years for every mainland state. Compared with June, prices fell in QLD, NSW and SA, and only VIC edged higher.
This report is published in the first week of each following month for SME, C&I and Strata businesses. It tracks the mainland National Electricity Market (NEM), the wholesale market connecting QLD, NSW, VIC and SA. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) runs the grid and publishes market data. Spot prices are what generators receive every five minutes. Your retail contract rate is set separately, and sustained spot movements feed into where retailers price it at renewal.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202607 and WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202606)
| State | Jun-26 ($/MWh) | Jul-26 ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|
| NSW | 83.30 | 81.52 |
| QLD | 71.43 | 65.43 |
| SA | 125.73 | 95.89 |
| VIC | 66.81 | 70.36 |
| State | Monthly Average | Change vs Jun-26 | Peak Day Price | Peak Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | $65.43 | -8.4% | $91.49 | Mon 27 Jul |
| NSW | $81.52 | -2.1% | $132.42 | Thu 30 Jul |
| VIC | $70.36 | +5.3% | $359.04 | Wed 8 Jul |
| SA | $95.89 | -23.7% | $388.54 | Thu 30 Jul |
Source: AEMO daily price data, calculated from WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202607
Source: AEMO monthly average price data (WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_MONTH series, August 2023 to July 2026)
| Period | QLD ($/MWh) | NSW ($/MWh) | VIC ($/MWh) | SA ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug-23 | 67.63 | 93.31 | 64.66 | 160.26 |
| Sep-23 | 50.77 | 64.54 | 26.31 | 41.32 |
| Oct-23 | 37.05 | 42.08 | 17.19 | 15.12 |
| Nov-23 | 72.97 | 87.35 | 34.94 | 44.92 |
| Dec-23 | 93.00 | 68.26 | 25.29 | 38.03 |
| Jan-24 | 160.43 | 81.17 | 22.10 | 32.74 |
| Feb-24 | 119.73 | 111.66 | 82.94 | 66.07 |
| Mar-24 | 74.09 | 70.47 | 51.99 | 67.13 |
| Apr-24 | 84.81 | 89.83 | 84.80 | 92.50 |
| May-24 | 92.69 | 273.56 | 132.97 | 135.71 |
| Jun-24 | 124.67 | 152.75 | 164.23 | 176.68 |
| Jul-24 | 119.06 | 127.17 | 149.14 | 241.22 |
| Aug-24 | 130.10 | 174.45 | 143.40 | 149.52 |
| Sep-24 | 49.66 | 58.02 | 17.39 | 80.29 |
| Oct-24 | 70.85 | 77.41 | 20.36 | 35.24 |
| Nov-24 | 177.48 | 219.68 | 64.08 | 60.91 |
| Dec-24 | 134.44 | 134.73 | 52.25 | 61.47 |
| Jan-25 | 114.01 | 83.34 | 48.35 | 48.22 |
| Feb-25 | 74.91 | 90.33 | 68.55 | 91.34 |
| Mar-25 | 79.01 | 89.96 | 61.75 | 61.79 |
| Apr-25 | 98.50 | 104.07 | 74.76 | 88.82 |
| May-25 | 95.63 | 123.02 | 78.05 | 83.31 |
| Jun-25 | 169.34 | 256.20 | 264.60 | 250.40 |
| Jul-25 | 82.13 | 96.95 | 82.13 | 164.95 |
| Aug-25 | 78.20 | 101.25 | 93.19 | 86.86 |
| Sep-25 | 54.35 | 71.24 | 55.27 | 57.60 |
| Oct-25 | 55.66 | 77.02 | 51.37 | 50.17 |
| Nov-25 | 63.05 | 76.93 | 31.92 | 32.48 |
| Dec-25 | 54.38 | 71.36 | 27.51 | 27.92 |
| Jan-26 | 64.03 | 67.22 | 38.55 | 152.25 |
| Feb-26 | 69.87 | 83.76 | 45.06 | 56.00 |
| Mar-26 | 62.64 | 70.36 | 44.74 | 52.80 |
| Apr-26 | 53.31 | 59.73 | 35.68 | 56.18 |
| May-26 | 76.34 | 82.01 | 64.77 | 77.49 |
| Jun-26 | 71.43 | 83.30 | 66.81 | 125.73 |
| Jul-26 | 65.43 | 81.52 | 70.36 | 95.89 |
| State | Calendar Year 2027 base swap | Calendar Year 2028 base swap |
|---|---|---|
| NSW | $87.76 | $89.21 |
| QLD | $77.05 | $79.28 |
| VIC | $64.90 | $75.72 |
| SA | $78.25 | $92.40 |
Calendar 2027 NSW base swaps closed the most recent ASX week at $87.76 per MWh, with VIC the cheapest mainland state at $64.90. A base swap is a contract that locks in a fixed price for every hour of the period covered. For businesses with renewals in the next 6 to 12 months, these are the reference points retailers will price against. The curve shape differs by state. NSW and QLD are close to flat, rising $1.45 and $2.23 from 2027 to 2028. VIC rises $10.82 and SA rises $14.15. Where the step is steep, locking part of the load now and the rest later may make more sense than fixing the full term at once. In NSW and QLD, a longer term currently costs little extra.
Source: ASX Energy AU market wrap, most recent weekly close
Average daily spot $65.43/MWh in July 2026, down 8.4% on June ($71.43). Peak day Mon 27 Jul at $91.49/MWh. Lowest day Fri 24 Jul at $38.18/MWh.
QLD was a net exporter, sending 507 GWh to other states across the month. Four coal units were offline through late July, which lifted prices on 27 July. That peak day lined up with the month’s lowest renewable share on the grid, in the early hours of 27 July.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202607)
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 80.34 |
| 2 | 76.18 |
| 3 | 56.22 |
| 4 | 49.70 |
| 5 | 50.23 |
| 6 | 69.73 |
| 7 | 74.47 |
| 8 | 83.05 |
| 9 | 87.96 |
| 10 | 84.83 |
| 11 | 62.05 |
| 12 | 40.99 |
| 13 | 45.91 |
| 14 | 52.64 |
| 15 | 68.94 |
| 16 | 68.18 |
| 17 | 79.33 |
| 18 | 58.26 |
| 19 | 46.88 |
| 20 | 62.53 |
| 21 | 76.26 |
| 22 | 73.26 |
| 23 | 59.98 |
| 24 | 38.18 |
| 25 | 40.67 |
| 26 | 62.78 |
| 27 | 91.49 |
| 28 | 68.09 |
| 29 | 57.30 |
| 30 | 79.32 |
| 31 | 82.65 |
Average daily spot $81.52/MWh in July 2026, down 2.1% on June ($83.30). Peak day Thu 30 Jul at $132.42/MWh. Lowest day Sun 12 Jul at $42.42/MWh.
NSW imported a net 709 GWh from neighbouring states, more than any other region. The Waratah Super Battery ran below its full rating pending a transformer replacement. Tight conditions in SA and VIC flowed north on 30 and 31 July, lifting NSW to its highest days of the month.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202607)
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 91.99 |
| 2 | 73.55 |
| 3 | 60.31 |
| 4 | 65.62 |
| 5 | 72.93 |
| 6 | 80.19 |
| 7 | 100.86 |
| 8 | 116.18 |
| 9 | 108.63 |
| 10 | 106.07 |
| 11 | 68.88 |
| 12 | 42.42 |
| 13 | 55.83 |
| 14 | 54.13 |
| 15 | 93.82 |
| 16 | 97.34 |
| 17 | 94.20 |
| 18 | 85.56 |
| 19 | 62.47 |
| 20 | 77.15 |
| 21 | 96.09 |
| 22 | 78.75 |
| 23 | 60.35 |
| 24 | 48.70 |
| 25 | 53.37 |
| 26 | 91.20 |
| 27 | 107.06 |
| 28 | 69.62 |
| 29 | 65.97 |
| 30 | 132.42 |
| 31 | 115.47 |
Average daily spot $95.89/MWh in July 2026, down 23.7% on June ($125.73). Peak day Thu 30 Jul at $388.54/MWh. Lowest day Thu 2 Jul at -$6.54/MWh.
Strong wind produced four negative days on 2, 12, 13 and 28 July. A daily average below zero means that, across the day, generators paid to stay online because wind and solar supplied more than the market needed. When wind fell away from 29 July, AEMO forecast low reserves for the evening peak and prices rose above $300 per MWh on two days.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202607)
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 30.38 |
| 2 | -6.54 |
| 3 | 61.32 |
| 4 | 130.46 |
| 5 | 90.10 |
| 6 | 72.01 |
| 7 | 86.16 |
| 8 | 336.33 |
| 9 | 143.85 |
| 10 | 108.38 |
| 11 | 6.92 |
| 12 | -5.84 |
| 13 | -6.09 |
| 14 | 35.27 |
| 15 | 116.79 |
| 16 | 104.44 |
| 17 | 109.82 |
| 18 | 98.28 |
| 19 | 68.52 |
| 20 | 83.04 |
| 21 | 100.56 |
| 22 | 69.13 |
| 23 | 60.13 |
| 24 | 89.65 |
| 25 | 58.16 |
| 26 | 102.24 |
| 27 | 44.41 |
| 28 | -2.51 |
| 29 | 97.51 |
| 30 | 388.54 |
| 31 | 301.14 |
Average daily spot $70.36/MWh in July 2026, up 5.3% on June ($66.81). Peak day Wed 8 Jul at $359.04/MWh. Lowest day Tue 28 Jul at $6.82/MWh.
The 8 July spike came as wind output across the NEM fell below 1,000 MW during the evening peak, with issues at both Loy Yang stations. Five-minute prices in VIC reached $19,070 per MWh. The market price cap, the highest price allowed in any five-minute interval, rose to $23,200 per MWh on 1 July.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202607)
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 15.76 |
| 2 | 8.10 |
| 3 | 25.43 |
| 4 | 63.74 |
| 5 | 60.14 |
| 6 | 82.43 |
| 7 | 119.78 |
| 8 | 359.04 |
| 9 | 143.06 |
| 10 | 104.01 |
| 11 | 7.33 |
| 12 | 6.99 |
| 13 | 15.18 |
| 14 | 24.14 |
| 15 | 94.87 |
| 16 | 98.81 |
| 17 | 91.25 |
| 18 | 89.68 |
| 19 | 50.77 |
| 20 | 66.00 |
| 21 | 87.57 |
| 22 | 43.44 |
| 23 | 41.34 |
| 24 | 25.98 |
| 25 | 23.80 |
| 26 | 60.52 |
| 27 | 44.72 |
| 28 | 6.82 |
| 29 | 39.38 |
| 30 | 137.51 |
| 31 | 143.66 |
AEMO tracks the highest and lowest share of total generation that comes from renewables at a single moment. The gap between the two shows the range the grid is working between. In July that range ran from 17.8% to 69.9%.
The high came at midday, with rooftop solar supplying 30.5% of generation on its own. Distributed PV is rooftop solar on homes and businesses, generating into the grid. SA averaged $35.27 and VIC $24.14 per MWh that day, a day after SA posted a negative daily average.
The low came at 2:30 am, when there is no solar and wind supplied only 9.6% of generation. Coal made up 75.6% of the mix. Later that day QLD recorded its peak daily average of $91.49 per MWh and NSW averaged $107.06.
High-renewable windows push spot prices toward zero, and sometimes below it. Low-renewable windows, usually overnight or in the evening, are when prices spike. Retail products that smooth this swing, such as fixed or capped rates, carry a premium for that protection.
Source: AEMO NEM data dashboard, renewable penetration record export.
| Event | Date | Time | Renewable share (%) | Total generation (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest | Tue 14 Jul 2026 | 12:00 | 69.9 | 35,192 |
| Lowest | Mon 27 Jul 2026 | 02:30 | 17.8 | 21,845 |
Source: AEMO NEM data dashboard, fuel mix export, most recent 90 days, mainland states only.
| Fuel type | Share (%) |
|---|---|
| Black coal | 43.9 |
| Brown coal | 17.4 |
| Wind | 18.4 |
| Solar | 9.4 |
| Hydro | 3.6 |
| Gas | 4.0 |
| Battery | 3.0 |
| Biomass | 0.4 |
| Liquid Fuel | 0.0 |
Coal supplied 61.3% of mainland generation over the past 90 days, split 43.9% black coal and 17.4% brown coal. Renewables supplied 34.7%, led by wind at 18.4%. Gas supplied only 4.0% but often sets the price in tight evening periods. With coal still the base, any wind shortfall shows up quickly in price.
We are pleased to welcome Josh Grech to the team as our new Energy Manager. Josh joins us from the UK with a background in commercial and industrial (C&I) energy, including outreach to the hospitality and manufacturing sectors. He brings extensive experience in customer relationships. He has taken to the Australian lifestyle, though his love of soccer has made the trip with him.
The wider team has been busy through the end of the financial year. That has meant working through contract reviews and keeping a strong focus on customer care as our clients head into the new financial year. If you would like a review of your own energy contracts ahead of your next renewal, our team is ready to help.
AEMO’s Quarterly Energy Dynamics report for Q2 2026, released on 28 July, showed wholesale prices well down on the June quarter of 2025. VIC averaged $56 per MWh (down 60%), NSW $75 (down 53%), QLD $67 (down 44%) and SA $86 (down 38%). Renewables supplied 42.1% of generation, and grid-scale battery capacity passed 9 GW.
Source: AEMO, July 2026
CSIRO and AEMO released the final GenCost 2025-26 report on 15 July. It found solar and onshore wind, backed by storage, remain the lowest-cost pathway for the grid to reach net zero. Battery costs keep falling, while strong global demand for gas turbines from US data centres is pushing gas generation costs up.
Source: CSIRO, July 2026
On 9 July the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) opened consultation on two rule changes for minimum system load. This happens when rooftop solar pushes grid demand too low for safe operation. One proposal sets spot prices to the market floor of -$1,000 per MWh during critical events. The other creates a paid reserve service for batteries and flexible loads.
Source: AEMC, July 2026
Our team works with SME, C&I and Strata clients across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Get in touch for a no-obligation portfolio review.
Talk to Our Team
Fields marked with * are required.