Wholesale power got cheaper in every mainland state in August, yet contracts for 2027 and 2028 are still priced above what the spot market delivered. South Australia fell 25.3 percent, Victoria fell 14.2 percent, and all four states recorded their cheapest winter month in three years.
Each month we track the mainland National Electricity Market (NEM), the wholesale market run by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Spot prices are what generators are paid in that market. Your retail contract rate differs, but sustained spot movements feed into the rates retailers offer at renewal. A new edition is published in the first week of each month.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202608 and WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202607)
| State | Jul-26 ($/MWh) | Aug-26 ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|
| NSW | 81.52 | 75.71 |
| QLD | 65.43 | 60.42 |
| SA | 95.89 | 71.62 |
| VIC | 70.36 | 60.40 |
| State | Monthly Average | Change vs Jul-26 | Peak Day Price | Peak Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | $60.42 | -7.7% | $107.05 | Thu 6 Aug |
| NSW | $75.71 | -7.1% | $122.43 | Thu 6 Aug |
| VIC | $60.40 | -14.2% | $133.09 | Wed 5 Aug |
| SA | $71.62 | -25.3% | $170.99 | Wed 5 Aug |
Source: AEMO daily price data, calculated from WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202608
Source: AEMO monthly average price data (WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_MONTH series, 36-month rolling)
| Period | QLD ($/MWh) | NSW ($/MWh) | VIC ($/MWh) | SA ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-23 | 50.77 | 64.54 | 26.31 | 41.32 |
| Oct-23 | 37.05 | 42.08 | 17.19 | 15.12 |
| Nov-23 | 72.97 | 87.35 | 34.94 | 44.92 |
| Dec-23 | 93.00 | 68.26 | 25.29 | 38.03 |
| Jan-24 | 160.43 | 81.17 | 22.10 | 32.74 |
| Feb-24 | 119.73 | 111.66 | 82.94 | 66.07 |
| Mar-24 | 74.09 | 70.47 | 51.99 | 67.13 |
| Apr-24 | 84.81 | 89.83 | 84.80 | 92.50 |
| May-24 | 92.69 | 273.56 | 132.97 | 135.71 |
| Jun-24 | 124.67 | 152.75 | 164.23 | 176.68 |
| Jul-24 | 119.06 | 127.17 | 149.14 | 241.22 |
| Aug-24 | 130.10 | 174.45 | 143.40 | 149.52 |
| Sep-24 | 49.66 | 58.02 | 17.39 | 80.29 |
| Oct-24 | 70.85 | 77.41 | 20.36 | 35.24 |
| Nov-24 | 177.48 | 219.68 | 64.08 | 60.91 |
| Dec-24 | 134.44 | 134.73 | 52.25 | 61.47 |
| Jan-25 | 114.01 | 83.34 | 48.35 | 48.22 |
| Feb-25 | 74.91 | 90.33 | 68.55 | 91.34 |
| Mar-25 | 79.01 | 89.96 | 61.75 | 61.79 |
| Apr-25 | 98.50 | 104.07 | 74.76 | 88.82 |
| May-25 | 95.63 | 123.02 | 78.05 | 83.31 |
| Jun-25 | 169.34 | 256.20 | 264.60 | 250.40 |
| Jul-25 | 82.13 | 96.95 | 82.13 | 164.95 |
| Aug-25 | 78.20 | 101.25 | 93.19 | 86.86 |
| Sep-25 | 54.35 | 71.24 | 55.27 | 57.60 |
| Oct-25 | 55.66 | 77.02 | 51.37 | 50.17 |
| Nov-25 | 63.05 | 76.93 | 31.92 | 32.48 |
| Dec-25 | 54.38 | 71.36 | 27.51 | 27.92 |
| Jan-26 | 64.03 | 67.22 | 38.55 | 152.25 |
| Feb-26 | 69.87 | 83.76 | 45.06 | 56.00 |
| Mar-26 | 62.64 | 70.36 | 44.74 | 52.80 |
| Apr-26 | 53.31 | 59.73 | 35.68 | 56.18 |
| May-26 | 76.34 | 82.01 | 64.77 | 77.49 |
| Jun-26 | 71.43 | 83.30 | 66.81 | 125.73 |
| Jul-26 | 65.43 | 81.52 | 70.36 | 95.89 |
| Aug-26 | 60.42 | 75.71 | 60.40 | 71.62 |
| State | Calendar Year 2027 base swap | Calendar Year 2028 base swap |
|---|---|---|
| NSW | $87.76 | $89.21 |
| QLD | $77.05 | $79.28 |
| VIC | $64.90 | $75.72 |
| SA | $78.25 | $92.40 |
A base swap is a contract that locks in a fixed price for every hour of the period covered. Calendar 2027 base swaps sit above August spot averages in every state, so retailers are pricing in more risk than the spot market delivered this winter. The step from 2027 to 2028 is small in NSW at $1.45 and QLD at $2.23. It is steeper in VIC at $10.82 and SA at $14.15. For renewals in the next 6 to 12 months, NSW and QLD buyers face a fairly flat curve, which suits a longer fixed term. In VIC and SA, locking in 2027 now and leaving part of 2028 open to contract later may give more flexibility. These are market signals only, not price forecasts.
Source: ASX Energy AU market wrap, latest published week
Average daily spot $60.42/MWh in August 2026, down 7.7 percent from $65.43 in July. Peak day Thu 6 Aug at $107.05/MWh. Lowest day Sun 2 Aug at $36.07/MWh.
Strong daytime solar kept most days between $40 and $80 per MWh. The only day above $100 came during the NEM-wide tight period in the first week, when wind output was low across the grid.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202608)
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 49.24 |
| 2 | 36.07 |
| 3 | 67.42 |
| 4 | 66.29 |
| 5 | 76.63 |
| 6 | 107.05 |
| 7 | 72.59 |
| 8 | 60.10 |
| 9 | 56.12 |
| 10 | 68.72 |
| 11 | 52.50 |
| 12 | 76.24 |
| 13 | 53.67 |
| 14 | 64.53 |
| 15 | 56.42 |
| 16 | 43.54 |
| 17 | 48.66 |
| 18 | 45.73 |
| 19 | 39.31 |
| 20 | 48.06 |
| 21 | 42.71 |
| 22 | 73.62 |
| 23 | 50.77 |
| 24 | 52.00 |
| 25 | 78.64 |
| 26 | 85.09 |
| 27 | 93.29 |
| 28 | 59.16 |
| 29 | 49.35 |
| 30 | 45.32 |
| 31 | 54.30 |
Average daily spot $75.71/MWh in August 2026, down 7.1 percent from $81.52 in July. Peak day Thu 6 Aug at $122.43/MWh. Lowest day Wed 19 Aug at $46.62/MWh.
New South Wales relies heavily on black coal, and it had fewer very cheap days than the southern states. Prices lifted in the first and last weeks, with $122.43 on 6 August and $112.47 on 27 August.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202608)
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 74.58 |
| 2 | 47.18 |
| 3 | 72.98 |
| 4 | 79.26 |
| 5 | 107.59 |
| 6 | 122.43 |
| 7 | 91.95 |
| 8 | 76.69 |
| 9 | 83.53 |
| 10 | 75.75 |
| 11 | 63.54 |
| 12 | 85.06 |
| 13 | 78.00 |
| 14 | 96.59 |
| 15 | 86.96 |
| 16 | 59.34 |
| 17 | 57.63 |
| 18 | 54.50 |
| 19 | 46.62 |
| 20 | 62.94 |
| 21 | 62.43 |
| 22 | 65.62 |
| 23 | 65.22 |
| 24 | 58.18 |
| 25 | 95.64 |
| 26 | 97.93 |
| 27 | 112.47 |
| 28 | 75.48 |
| 29 | 66.31 |
| 30 | 56.21 |
| 31 | 68.35 |
Average daily spot $71.62/MWh in August 2026, down 25.3 percent from $95.89 in July. Peak day Wed 5 Aug at $170.99/MWh. Lowest day Sat 8 Aug at $6.79/MWh.
Wind drives South Australian prices more than anywhere else on the mainland. Low wind in the first week lifted the daily average to $170.99 on 5 August. Windier conditions from 8 August pulled three days below $20.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202608)
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 64.28 |
| 2 | 14.13 |
| 3 | 47.99 |
| 4 | 106.03 |
| 5 | 170.99 |
| 6 | 112.52 |
| 7 | 83.86 |
| 8 | 6.79 |
| 9 | 35.89 |
| 10 | 36.85 |
| 11 | 39.54 |
| 12 | 37.62 |
| 13 | 88.29 |
| 14 | 154.78 |
| 15 | 102.65 |
| 16 | 48.08 |
| 17 | 51.32 |
| 18 | 18.06 |
| 19 | 10.77 |
| 20 | 77.06 |
| 21 | 96.19 |
| 22 | 101.02 |
| 23 | 58.27 |
| 24 | 62.12 |
| 25 | 72.84 |
| 26 | 141.74 |
| 27 | 107.65 |
| 28 | 94.13 |
| 29 | 63.16 |
| 30 | 56.98 |
| 31 | 58.69 |
Average daily spot $60.40/MWh in August 2026, down 14.2 percent from $70.36 in July. Peak day Wed 5 Aug at $133.09/MWh. Lowest day Sun 2 Aug at minus $2.43/MWh.
Victoria tracked South Australia closely, with wind setting the pattern for both states and lifting Victoria to $133.09 on 5 August. The minus $2.43 average on Sunday 2 August means generators were, on average, paying to keep running that day. This happens when strong wind meets low weekend demand, and it is a normal market outcome rather than a data error.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202608)
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 51.47 |
| 2 | -2.43 |
| 3 | 25.71 |
| 4 | 78.29 |
| 5 | 133.09 |
| 6 | 109.27 |
| 7 | 88.81 |
| 8 | 5.99 |
| 9 | 33.42 |
| 10 | 67.68 |
| 11 | 49.10 |
| 12 | 30.88 |
| 13 | 77.78 |
| 14 | 97.07 |
| 15 | 84.77 |
| 16 | 47.22 |
| 17 | 50.65 |
| 18 | 16.07 |
| 19 | 21.14 |
| 20 | 68.87 |
| 21 | 36.20 |
| 22 | 42.27 |
| 23 | 58.44 |
| 24 | 52.62 |
| 25 | 94.94 |
| 26 | 87.03 |
| 27 | 109.25 |
| 28 | 81.52 |
| 29 | 58.80 |
| 30 | 52.17 |
| 31 | 64.37 |
AEMO tracks the highest and lowest instantaneous renewable share of total generation on the mainland NEM. The gap between the two shows the range the grid is running between. In August that range ran from 16.9 percent to 72.7 percent.
Strong sunshine on a Sunday lunchtime, when business demand is lowest, let solar do almost all the work. Rooftop and utility solar together supplied 68.5 percent of generation, while wind contributed only 3.2 percent. Distributed PV is rooftop solar on homes and businesses, generating into the grid. The all-time NEM record still sits above 78 percent.
At 4:00 am on Friday 7 August there was no solar and wind supplied just 7.1 percent of generation. Coal covered 75.3 percent of the grid, with hydro and gas filling most of the rest. It came straight after the dearest days of the month, and on 6 August daily averages topped $100 in every mainland state.
High-renewable windows like 30 August push daytime spot prices towards zero. Low-renewable windows, usually overnight or on still evenings, are when prices spike. Retail products that smooth out this swing, such as fixed-price contracts or caps, carry a premium because the retailer takes on that risk. A cap contract pays out when spot prices go above an agreed level, and knowing when your sites use power helps decide how much of that premium is worth paying.
Source: AEMO NEM data dashboard, renewable penetration record export.
| Event | Date | Time | Renewable share (%) | Total generation (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest | Sun 30 Aug 2026 | 12:30 | 72.7 | 31,714 |
| Lowest | Fri 7 Aug 2026 | 04:00 | 16.9 | 22,603 |
Source: AEMO NEM data dashboard, fuel mix export, past 90 days, mainland states only.
| Fuel type | Share (%) |
|---|---|
| Black coal | 43.9 |
| Brown coal | 17.4 |
| Wind | 18.5 |
| Solar | 9.5 |
| Hydro | 3.5 |
| Gas | 3.9 |
| Battery | 3.0 |
| Biomass | 0.4 |
| Liquid Fuel | 0.0 |
Coal supplied 61.3 percent of mainland generation over the past 90 days, and renewables and storage supplied 34.9 percent. Wind was the largest renewable source at 18.5 percent, ahead of solar at 9.5 percent. Because coal and gas still carry the grid overnight and on still evenings, price risk stays concentrated in those hours even as daytime prices fall.
Every August, and again in March, our team reviews the tariffs on our C&I clients’ sites. A site can end up on a tariff that no longer matches how it uses power, and moving eligible sites to a better tariff lowers their costs. This year’s August reviews are complete, and we’ve identified roughly $350,000 in savings across our clients.
AEMO reported that NEM wholesale prices averaged $74 per MWh in the June quarter, the lowest June quarter average since 2020, as renewables supplied a record 42.1 percent of generation. August prices fell again in every mainland state. For larger clients, this is a good time to consider locking in longer contract terms. If your renewal is coming up in the next 12 to 18 months, talk to us about your options.
AEMO’s 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, released on 25 August, found no forecast reliability gaps before 2030. A record 9.1 GW of new generation and storage connected in 2025-26. AEMO forecasts consumption to rise more than 40 percent over the next decade, with data centres growing from about 3 percent to 13 percent of grid supply.
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, August 2026
The Australian Energy Regulator’s Wholesale Electricity Market Performance Report 2026 found batteries set the NEM wholesale price 16.3 percent of the time in 2025, up from about 1 percent in 2021. During Queensland evening peaks the figure reached 25.5 percent. The AER identified a further 6.5 GW of committed battery storage in the pipeline.
Source: Australian Energy Regulator, August 2026
The Victorian Government opened Australia’s first offshore wind auction in late August, seeking 2 GW of capacity, enough to supply about 1.5 million homes. Bids close in August 2027, contracts are due to be awarded in 2028 and first power is expected by 2035. Successful projects will be backed through the new Electricity Services Entry Mechanism.
Source: Victorian Government and ABC News, August 2026
Our team works with SME, C&I and Strata clients across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Get in touch for a no-obligation portfolio review.
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