Published by Watt Utilities | Energy Market Analysis | August 2026
Wholesale power got cheaper in every mainland state in August, yet contracts for 2027 and 2028 are still priced above what the spot market delivered. South Australia fell 25.3 percent, Victoria fell 14.2 percent, and all four states recorded their cheapest winter month in three years.
Each month we track the mainland National Electricity Market (NEM), the wholesale market run by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Spot prices are what generators are paid in that market. Your retail contract rate differs, but sustained spot movements feed into the rates retailers offer at renewal. A new edition is published in the first week of each month.
AT A GLANCE: AUGUST 2026
- Spot prices fell in all four mainland states. South Australia dropped 25.3 percent to $71.62 per MWh, Victoria fell 14.2 percent to $60.40, Queensland eased 7.7 percent to $60.42 and New South Wales slipped 7.1 percent to $75.71.
- Prices are well below a year ago, down 35.2 percent in Victoria and 25.2 percent in New South Wales on August 2025. Renewal quotes should reflect that lower base, so it pays to test the market before a contract rolls over.
- Forward contracts sit above spot. Calendar 2027 base swaps closed the latest ASX market wrap at $87.76 in NSW, $77.05 in QLD, $78.25 in SA and $64.90 in VIC, with a steeper step up into 2028 in SA and VIC.
- Coal still supplied 61.3 percent of mainland generation over the past 90 days, with renewables and storage at 34.9 percent. That is why evenings, when solar drops away, still carry most of the price risk.
- On Sunday 30 August solar pushed renewables to 72.7 percent of the grid while wind barely registered. The full report shows why that one day explains where your price risk now sits.
NEM Average Spot Price: July vs August 2026
NEM Average Spot Price: July 2026 vs August 2026 ($/MWh)
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY monthly exports).
| State | Jul-26 ($/MWh) | Aug-26 ($/MWh) |
|---|
| NSW | 81.52 | 75.71 |
| QLD | 65.43 | 60.42 |
| SA | 95.89 | 71.62 |
| VIC | 70.36 | 60.40 |
South Australia led the fall, down 25.3 percent, as windier conditions from 8 August pulled three days below $20 per MWh. Victoria followed with a 14.2 percent drop and one day below zero on Sunday 2 August. Victoria was the cheapest mainland state at $60.40 per MWh, just 2 cents below Queensland at $60.42, while New South Wales remained the dearest at $75.71.
What’s in the full report
- State by state breakdown for QLD, NSW, VIC and SA, with daily price charts and the drivers behind each move.
- Contracting Outlook: the latest ASX forward prices for calendar 2027 and 2028 read into plain-language guidance on whether to lock in, wait, or hedge in parts.
- Renewable Records: the grid’s highest and lowest renewable moments in August and what the volatility range means for price risk.
- The 90-day fuel mix and what the coal versus renewables split means for your exposure.
- Watt’s News, including the results of our annual C&I tariff reviews, and verified Industry News for the month.
Get the full report
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