Each month, Watt Utilities publishes this Commercial Energy Market Report to keep our clients informed about wholesale electricity price movements across Australia’s east coast. We cover what happened in the spot market, why prices moved, and what it means for businesses managing energy costs. A new edition is released around the 20th of the following month.
Australia’s electricity grid operates through the National Electricity Market (NEM), which connects Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia via a shared transmission network. Wholesale spot prices are set every five minutes through a competitive bidding process managed by AEMO (the Australian Energy Market Operator), the independent body responsible for operating the NEM and ensuring reliable electricity supply. The prices in this report reflect the wholesale spot market and are distinct from the retail rates businesses pay on their energy bills, though sustained movements in the spot market generally feed into retail contract pricing over time. This report covers the mainland NEM only (Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia).
November 2025 delivered mixed pricing across the mainland NEM, with Victoria and South Australia falling sharply while NSW saw increased volatility. Storm-related cloud cover in NSW disrupted rooftop solar generation, driving multiple midday price spikes with the state’s maximum five-minute interval reaching $20,300/MWh. Queensland achieved a new November demand record of 10,451MW during a heatwave but maintained stable pricing despite significant coal outages. Victoria recorded the lowest mainland average at $31.92/MWh. Forward contract markets continued to soften as participants priced in structural shifts from battery storage expansion and renewable capacity growth.
Source: Shell Energy / AEMO
| State | Average Spot Price | Max 5 Min Spot Price | 5 Min Intervals at $1,000+ | 5 Min Intervals at $0 or Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | $63.05 | $989.73 | 0 | 2,693 |
| NSW | $76.93 | $20,300.00 | 9 | 2,712 |
| VIC | $31.92 | $298.10 | 0 | 4,074 |
| SA | $32.48 | $1,000.00 | 1 | 4,376 |
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO (via Shell Energy Market Summary Report, November 2025)
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO. Chart Credit: Shell Energy. Historical data prior to Sep 2025 sourced from Shell Energy 3-year charts.
Calendar Year 2026 contracts saw downward pressure across all mainland regions through November, with market participants pricing in structural improvements from battery storage and renewable capacity rather than reacting to NSW’s spot volatility or Queensland’s record demand. The spread between current spot levels and forward contract prices continued to compress. For businesses with renewals approaching in the first half of 2026, forward prices are currently trading closer to spot conditions than at any point over the past two years. Businesses with upcoming renewals are reasonably positioned to engage the market now, though the approaching summer period introduces some seasonal uncertainty around demand and potential supply stress events. Partial hedging strategies may suit those wanting to capture current market conditions while retaining some flexibility through the summer period.
Average pricing held at $76.93/MWh in November, essentially flat against October’s $77.02/MWh (down 0.1%). Significant intra-month volatility was driven by weather-related disruptions to renewable generation, with the maximum five-minute interval reaching $20,300/MWh.
NSW recorded nine high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh as storm cloud cover curtailed rooftop solar during afternoon demand peaks. The $20,300/MWh figure is AEMO’s administered price cap, a ceiling applied automatically when cumulative spot prices reach a regulatory threshold (it is not a data error). Transmission constraints in south-central NSW amplified local pricing pressures during these events.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202511)
Spot pricing averaged $63.05/MWh in November, up 13.3% from October’s $55.66/MWh. Despite setting a new November demand record of 10,451MW during heatwave conditions, Queensland maintained a stable pricing profile throughout the month.
Queensland delivered zero high-price events above $1,000/MWh even as demand reached 10,451MW, surpassing the previous November record of 9,189MW by 14%. Strong solar generation and adequate interconnector flows maintained supply despite multiple planned and unplanned coal outages, with 2,693 intervals recording zero or negative pricing.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202511)
Spot pricing averaged $32.48/MWh in November, a 35.3% decrease from October’s $50.17/MWh. The state recorded 4,376 intervals at or below zero pricing, the highest count across all mainland states, reflecting extended periods of renewable oversupply.
SA recorded one high-price interval reaching exactly $1,000/MWh during a brief wind lull. The month demonstrated the characteristic extremes of SA’s generation mix: extended periods of oversupply pushing prices to zero or below, offset by occasional brief supply shortfalls. Wind generation dominated the renewable portfolio and kept average prices well below the mainland average despite the single spike event.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202511)
Average pricing fell to $31.92/MWh in November, a 37.9% decrease from October’s $51.37/MWh and the lowest mainland outcome for the month, reflecting abundant renewable generation across the state.
Victoria experienced zero high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh and recorded 4,074 intervals at or below zero pricing as wind generation performed strongly throughout November. Improved coal plant availability compared to winter months contributed to stable shoulder season conditions across the state.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202511)
Source: Shell Energy Market Summary Report, November 2025 (AEMO fuel mix data)
Coal held 55% of NEM output over the 90-day period (black coal 42%, brown coal 13%), while renewables reached 40% of supply. Wind (21%) led the renewable portfolio, with solar contributing 12% and hydro 7%. Gas provided minimal peaking support at 3%. The 40% renewable share created frequent oversupply periods during daylight hours, driving the high zero and negative pricing interval counts recorded across all mainland states in November.
Throughout November, Watt Utilities focused on preparing commercial clients for the forecast summer period following AEMO’s readiness briefing. Our team conducted portfolio reviews for C&I clients across our Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria markets, analysing exposure to potential summer demand peaks and price volatility events.
With AEMO forecasting warmer-than-average conditions and flagging system stability risks during low-demand periods, we provided strategic guidance on contract positioning and demand management opportunities. Our Watts Mine platform, which has incorporated AI-driven analysis for over two years, supported this process with detailed market intelligence and contract scenario modelling for clients assessing their summer exposure.
AEMO’s annual summer readiness briefing in November outlined key watchpoints for the upcoming season. The market operator expects warmer-than-average days and nights across most of Australia, particularly in Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania. Minimum demand challenges pose increased risks of record low operational demand during mild weekends and holidays, creating potential system stability issues. High-impact outages remain similar to last summer, with some potentially limiting inter-regional transfer capability during critical periods.
Source: AEMO, November 2025
Our team works with SME, C&I and Strata clients across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Get in touch for a no-obligation portfolio review.
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