Each month, Watt Utilities publishes this Commercial Energy Market Report to keep our clients informed about wholesale electricity price movements across Australia’s east coast. We cover what happened in the spot market, why prices moved, and what it means for businesses managing energy costs. A new edition is released around the 20th of the following month.
Australia’s electricity grid operates through the National Electricity Market (NEM), which connects Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia via a shared transmission network. Wholesale spot prices are set every five minutes through a competitive bidding process managed by AEMO (the Australian Energy Market Operator), the independent body responsible for operating the NEM and ensuring reliable electricity supply. The prices in this report reflect the wholesale spot market and are distinct from the retail rates businesses pay on their energy bills, though sustained movements in the spot market generally feed into retail contract pricing over time.
Source: Shell Energy / AEMO
| State | Average Spot Price | Max 5 Min Spot Price | 5 Min Intervals at $1,000+ | 5 Min Intervals at $0 or Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | $62.64 | $253.38 | 0 | 994 |
| NSW | $70.36 | $189.59 | 0 | 490 |
| VIC | $44.74 | $273.81 | 0 | 2,430 |
| SA | $52.80 | $1,001.00 | 1 | 2,730 |
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO (via Shell Energy Market Summary Report, March 2026)
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO. Chart Credit: Shell Energy. Historical data prior to Sep 2025 sourced from Shell Energy 3-year charts.
NSW averaged $70.36/MWh in March, down 16.0% from $83.76/MWh in February. No five-minute intervals exceeded $1,000/MWh, a sharp contrast to February when 11 intervals hit the $20,300/MWh administered price cap. The daily peak of $121.00/MWh occurred on 19 March.
Mild autumn temperatures reduced air conditioning load, and no major generation outages disrupted the market. Renewable output was consistent, with 490 zero-or-negative intervals recorded across the month. The 19 March peak was a brief NEM-wide demand event affecting all states simultaneously, not a NSW-specific constraint. The February administered price cap events ($20,300/MWh) are AEMO’s regulatory ceiling applied automatically when cumulative spot prices hit a threshold; they were absent in March, contributing to the sharp month-on-month improvement.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202603)
Queensland averaged $62.64/MWh in March, down 10.3% from $69.87/MWh in February. No five-minute intervals exceeded $1,000/MWh, and 994 zero-or-negative intervals were recorded. The daily peak of $118.50/MWh fell on 19 March.
Autumn demand moderation and strong coal baseload availability kept prices stable through most of the month. Consistent solar output underpinned the high zero-and-negative interval count. The 19 March spike was brief and driven by NEM-wide conditions rather than any Queensland-specific supply event. Early March saw the month’s lowest daily average of $30.44/MWh on 14 March, reflecting mild weather and ample overnight and morning generation.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202603)
South Australia averaged $52.80/MWh in March, down 5.7% from $56.00/MWh in February. One five-minute interval reached $1,001.00/MWh on 24 March, when wind generation fell sharply late in the day. SA recorded 2,730 zero-or-negative intervals, the highest count across the mainland states for the month. The daily average ranged from -$51.49/MWh on 13 March to $130.61/MWh on 24 March.
SA’s renewable-heavy generation mix produced its characteristically wide daily price range. The single $1,000+ interval on 24 March reflects a brief, genuine AEMO-published spot price spike during a wind-generation drop; at $1,001.00/MWh it is a standard high-price market event, not an administered price cap (the regulated cap of $20,300/MWh was not triggered). Ample solar and wind output through the rest of the month drove the high zero-or-negative interval count, particularly across the first two weeks of March when several days averaged below $0/MWh.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202603)
Victoria averaged $44.74/MWh in March, down just 0.7% from $45.06/MWh in February. No five-minute intervals exceeded $1,000/MWh, and 2,430 zero-or-negative intervals were recorded across the month. The daily peak of $111.19/MWh on 19 March was the only day to exceed $110.
Strong wind and solar generation through most of the month kept average prices low and drove the high zero-or-negative interval count. The week of 16 to 19 March saw the only sustained period of elevated prices, as NEM-wide demand lifted briefly. The low of -$11.07/MWh on 8 March and the subsequent return to negative territory on several days reflected periods of excess renewable supply unable to be absorbed by demand or storage.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202603)
Source: Shell Energy Market Summary Report, March 2026 (AEMO fuel mix data)
Black coal and brown coal combined accounted for 58% of generation over the 90-day period, providing the baseload stability that kept spot prices from sustained volatility. Renewables contributed 37% in total (wind 18%, solar 14%, hydro 5%). Gas remained a modest but consistent balancing source at 3%. The high coal share continues to limit the price impact of short-term renewable output gaps.
Our development team has been deep in a six-month project to modernise the technology underpinning how we serve clients. The build involves integrating a new CRM system with live energy retailer data and billing feeds from our RYO platform, connecting client portfolio information in a single view for the first time. The project goes live in late April 2026.
This is a meaningful upgrade to our day-to-day operations. Faster, more accurate access to client data means our team can respond more quickly to market movements and provide more timely guidance on contract positions. Our Watts Mine platform has incorporated AI-driven analysis for over two years, with capabilities and accuracy continuously improved. The new CRM and data integration layer extends that foundation, linking market intelligence directly to client-level energy and billing data.
The ACCC long-run LNG netback price for the balance of 2026 surged 60.5% in March, rising from $12.90/GJ to $20.71/GJ, the largest monthly percentage increase since 2022. Shell attributes the move to global commodity market disruption. While domestic gas spot prices remained lower at around $9/GJ, the netback price rise has fed directly into forward electricity contract pricing across the mainland NEM, with FY27 and FY28 swap prices moving sharply higher through the month.
Source: ACCC / Shell Energy Market Summary Report, March 2026
FY27 electricity swap contracts closed March at $113.10/MWh in NSW (up from $97.19 at the start of the month), $92.46 in QLD, $92.84 in SA and $79.76 in VIC. FY28 contracts moved in similar direction. Shell explicitly links the rally to global commodity price increases, with geopolitical disruption in the Middle East driving risk repricing across energy markets. For Australian businesses, the movement represents a material shift in the contract reference price for renewals through FY27 and FY28.
Source: ASX / Shell Energy Market Summary Report, March 2026
Large-scale Generation Certificate prices continued declining through March, reaching new lows amid persistent oversupply and limited compliance-driven demand. The Clean Energy Regulator’s 2026 Renewable Power Percentage (RPP) of 16.67% (down from 17.91% in 2025) confirmed a reduction in liable demand for the year, reinforcing the oversupply narrative. LGC prices are a component of retail energy contract costs; their continued softness provides a partial offset to rising wholesale forward prices for businesses contracting new agreements.
Source: Clean Energy Regulator / Shell Energy Market Summary Report, March 2026
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