Each month, Watt Utilities publishes this Commercial Energy Market Report to keep our clients informed about wholesale electricity price movements across Australia’s east coast. We cover what happened in the spot market, why prices moved, and what it means for businesses managing energy costs. A new edition is released around the 20th of the following month.
Australia’s electricity grid operates through the National Electricity Market (NEM), which connects Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia via a shared transmission network. Wholesale spot prices are set every five minutes through a competitive bidding process managed by AEMO (the Australian Energy Market Operator), the independent body responsible for operating the NEM and ensuring reliable electricity supply. The prices in this report reflect the wholesale spot market and are distinct from the retail rates businesses pay on their energy bills, though sustained movements in the spot market generally feed into retail contract pricing over time. This report covers the mainland NEM only (Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia).
June 2025 delivered intense wholesale market volatility across the mainland NEM as renewable generation capacity fell sharply while heating demand rose during cold weather. Coal plant outages exacerbated supply tightness, with wind capacity falling from around 8GW to under 1GW within a 24-hour period on June 11. Victoria recorded the highest average at $264.60/MWh with 161 high-price intervals, while Queensland showed the most resilience at $169.34/MWh. Forward markets saw upward pressure before moderating as the most severe supply disruptions proved shorter-lived than initially expected.
Source: Shell Energy / AEMO
| State | Average Spot Price | Max 5 Min Spot Price | 5 Min Intervals at $1,000+ | 5 Min Intervals at $0 or Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | $169.34 | $16,567.63 | 78 | 1,036 |
| NSW | $256.20 | $17,026.18 | 146 | 260 |
| VIC | $264.60 | $17,500.00 | 161 | 402 |
| SA | $250.40 | $16,983.46 | 147 | 1,301 |
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO (via Shell Energy Market Summary Report, June 2025)
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO. Chart Credit: Shell Energy. Historical data prior to Sep 2025 sourced from Shell Energy 3-year charts.
Forward contract markets saw upward pressure through early June before moderating as the worst supply shortage proved temporary. For businesses with renewals that fell due during June, the market reference point was at its most unfavourable in recent history. For those with upcoming renewals in the months ahead, June’s events reinforce the case for not waiting for an ideal entry point if winter supply risk remains elevated. The forward curve had priced in ongoing risk by late June, meaning contracts offered during this period still carried a premium above the pre-June levels. Businesses reviewing their contract positions should weigh whether the risk premium embedded in current forward prices reflects conditions they genuinely expect to persist through the next contract term.
Average pricing hit $256.20/MWh in June, more than doubling from May’s $123.02/MWh. The 146 high-price intervals drove the monthly average well above the prior month, with the peak five-minute interval reaching $17,026.18/MWh.
NSW endured 146 intervals above $1,000/MWh as wind shortfalls coincided with coal plant outages during cold winter demand peaks. The $17,026.18/MWh peak is an AEMO-published market price set through the competitive bidding process during supply-constrained periods (it is not a data error). Some relief came from 260 zero or negative pricing intervals when renewable output recovered briefly.
* NSW daily averages for Jun 12 ($1,693.97) and Jun 26 ($1,950.53) exceeded $700/MWh. Chart Y-axis capped at $700 for readability. Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202506)
Spot pricing averaged $169.34/MWh in June, up 77.1% from May’s $95.63/MWh. Queensland recorded the most stable mainland performance for the month, with the lowest average and highest zero or negative pricing interval count despite challenging supply conditions across the NEM.
Queensland recorded 78 high-price intervals with a maximum of $16,567.63/MWh during the June 11 wind shortage event. These are legitimate AEMO market prices from the competitive bidding process during supply tightness. The state benefited from 1,036 zero or negative pricing intervals as strong solar penetration provided relief during daylight hours across the month.
* QLD daily average for Jun 12 ($1,546.60) exceeded $700/MWh. Chart Y-axis capped at $700 for readability. Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202506)
Average pricing reached $250.40/MWh in June, up 200.6% from May’s $83.31/MWh. SA’s sensitivity to interconnector limitations and renewable variability was evident throughout, with extreme price swings in both directions across the month.
SA recorded 147 high-price intervals with a peak of $16,983.46/MWh during the wind shortage events of June 11 and June 26. These are AEMO-published market prices from the competitive bidding process during constrained supply periods. The state also recorded 1,301 zero or negative pricing intervals, illustrating the extreme swings between renewable oversupply and shortage characteristic of SA’s generation mix.
* SA daily averages for Jun 12 ($1,636.06) and Jun 26 ($1,970.23) exceeded $700/MWh. Chart Y-axis capped at $700 for readability. 5-minute interval peak was $16,983.46/MWh. Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202506)
Spot pricing averaged $264.60/MWh in June, up 239.0% from May’s $78.05/MWh and the highest mainland average for the month. Victoria’s dependence on coal baseload made it most exposed when coal outages coincided with the wind generation shortfall.
Victoria recorded 161 high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh with a maximum of $17,500.00/MWh. The $17,500/MWh figure is AEMO’s market price cap, the ceiling price that any generator can offer under NEM market rules (it is not a data error). Coal plant outages coincided with the June 11 wind shortfall, removing both supply sources simultaneously during the most constrained periods of the month.
* VIC daily averages for Jun 12 ($1,786.27) and Jun 26 ($2,048.91) exceeded $700/MWh. Chart Y-axis capped at $700 for readability. 5-minute interval peak was $17,500.00/MWh. Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202506)
Source: Shell Energy Market Summary Report, June 2025 (AEMO fuel mix data)
Coal held 62% of NEM output over the 90-day period to June (black coal 45%, brown coal 17%), reflecting continued winter baseload reliance. Wind and solar combined for 24%, with hydro and gas each at 7%. The 62% coal share directly explains why the combination of unexpected coal outages and wind shortfall in June created supply conditions that the remaining fleet could not easily fill, with gas-fired peakers required to set prices at the highest available bids.
Watt Utilities upgraded our internal systems through June, giving clients faster quoting, clearer reporting and smoother contract renewals. The update includes improvements to our client communication workflows and a more intuitive customer portal, making it easier to manage energy accounts across multiple sites.
Our Watts Mine platform, which has incorporated AI-driven analysis for over two years, was also updated as part of this work. The platform continues to support contract analysis, portfolio management and market intelligence for our SME, C&I and Strata clients, with capability improvements building on the existing foundation.
In May 2025, AEMO released the Draft 2025 Electricity Network Options Report, extending its planning coverage from transmission to distribution infrastructure. The expanded scope identifies investment opportunities to support increased uptake of distributed energy resources. SME and C&I users can expect improved coordination between local and network-wide infrastructure, reducing connection delays for solar and battery installations.
Source: AEMO, May 2025
The Australian Energy Market Commission updated the National Electricity Rules in June 2025, simplifying metering for commercial and industrial embedded networks by enabling direct billing from existing metering points. The reforms reduce installation barriers and costs for embedded energy solutions, with a staged rollout beginning May 2026 for streetlights and EV chargers, expanding to broader C&I applications by November 2026.
Source: AEMC, June 2025
Our team works with SME, C&I and Strata clients across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Get in touch for a no-obligation portfolio review.
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