Each month, Watt Utilities publishes this Commercial Energy Market Report to keep our clients informed about wholesale electricity price movements across Australia’s east coast. We cover what happened in the spot market, why prices moved, and what it means for businesses managing energy costs. A new edition is released around the 20th of the following month.
Australia’s electricity grid operates through the National Electricity Market (NEM), which connects Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia via a shared transmission network. Wholesale spot prices are set every five minutes through a competitive bidding process managed by AEMO (the Australian Energy Market Operator), the independent body responsible for operating the NEM and ensuring reliable electricity supply. The prices in this report reflect the wholesale spot market and are distinct from the retail rates businesses pay on their energy bills, though sustained movements in the spot market generally feed into retail contract pricing over time. This report covers the mainland NEM only (Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia).
July 2025 delivered a dramatic reversal from June’s volatility, with prices falling across all mainland NEM regions as wind generation rebounded and coal plant availability improved. Victoria recorded the most significant relief with prices dropping 69.0% from June’s $264.60/MWh to $82.13/MWh. South Australia fell 34.1% despite recording 135 high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh, concentrated in the first days of the month during extended wind lulls. Queensland and NSW also fell sharply with zero high-price events. Forward contract markets initially held elevated levels before moderating as participants gained confidence that the supply improvements were sustainable.
Source: Shell Energy / AEMO
| State | Average Spot Price | Max 5 Min Spot Price | 5 Min Intervals at $1,000+ | 5 Min Intervals at $0 or Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | $82.13 | $380.58 | 0 | 1,647 |
| NSW | $96.95 | $658.17 | 0 | 540 |
| VIC | $82.13 | $406.48 | 0 | 1,244 |
| SA | $164.95 | $15,103.84 | 135 | 2,260 |
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO (via Shell Energy Market Summary Report, July 2025)
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO. Chart Credit: Shell Energy. Historical data prior to Sep 2025 sourced from Shell Energy 3-year charts.
Forward contract markets held elevated levels through most of July before moderating as the spot price correction proved sustained rather than temporary. The gap between June’s extreme spot levels and July’s normalised conditions demonstrated how quickly the market can shift, reinforcing the case for managing contract timing carefully rather than reacting to monthly spot movements. For businesses with upcoming renewals, July’s correction offered a more favourable reference point than June’s extreme levels, but forward curves still carried a premium reflecting ongoing thermal reliability concerns and summer demand risk. Businesses entering the market in July faced better spot conditions but forward prices that had only partially adjusted from their June highs. Partial hedging, locking in a base load position at current levels with flexibility to review as summer conditions become clearer, remained a reasonable approach through this period.
Average pricing fell to $96.95/MWh in July, a 62.2% decrease from June’s extreme $256.20/MWh. Zero high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh were recorded, a stark contrast to June’s 146 extreme events.
NSW benefited from restored wind generation output and improved coal plant availability following June’s supply crisis. The state recorded 540 intervals of zero or negative pricing as renewable generation normalised through the month. The late-month uptick on July 29 and 30 reflected a brief return to tighter supply conditions but did not approach the extreme levels of the preceding month.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202507)
Spot pricing averaged $82.13/MWh in July, a 51.5% decrease from June’s $169.34/MWh. Queensland recorded the lowest mainland average for the month with zero high-price events above $1,000/MWh throughout.
Queensland delivered zero high-price events and 1,647 intervals of zero or negative pricing, the highest count across all mainland states. Strong solar penetration during daylight hours combined with improved wind conditions created consistent supply conditions. The late-month spike to $144.46/MWh on July 29 reflected increased system demand rather than a supply failure.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202507)
Average pricing reached $164.95/MWh in July, a 34.1% decrease from June’s $250.40/MWh. The monthly average remained elevated due to 135 high-price intervals concentrated in the first three days, which skewed the full-month figure significantly despite stable conditions for the rest of July.
SA’s 135 high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh reflected extreme wind lulls that persisted into early July from June’s supply crisis. The July 2 daily average of $1,998.82/MWh represents actual AEMO-published market prices during this period (not a data error) and illustrates SA’s exposure when wind generation fails during peak demand windows. From July 4 onwards conditions normalised rapidly, with the state recording 2,260 intervals at or below zero pricing for the remainder of the month.
* SA daily average for Jul 2 was $1,998.82/MWh. Chart Y-axis capped at $700 for readability. 5-minute interval peak was $15,103.84/MWh. Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202507)
Spot pricing averaged $82.13/MWh in July, a 69.0% decrease from June’s $264.60/MWh and the most dramatic monthly improvement on the mainland NEM. Zero high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh were recorded for the full month.
Victoria’s 69.0% price fall from June directly reflects wind generation recovering to more typical winter levels after the June shortfall. Coal plant availability also improved, reducing reliance on expensive gas-fired generation during peak demand periods. The state recorded 1,244 zero or negative pricing intervals, with the brief uptick on July 29 and 30 driven by end-of-month demand pressure.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202507)
Source: Shell Energy Market Summary Report, July 2025 (AEMO fuel mix data)
Coal held 60% of NEM output over the 90-day period (black coal 44%, brown coal 16%), reflecting the winter baseload reliance that underpinned June’s vulnerability when coal outages combined with wind shortfalls. Wind recovered to 18% for the period and solar contributed 6%, with gas providing 7% of peaking support. The restored wind contribution was the primary driver of July’s price correction after June’s shortfalls reduced effective wind output well below these averages.
Watt Utilities completed one of our largest energy portfolio audits, analysing 804 client sites for Knight Frank across Victoria in just two weeks. Using our Watts Mine platform, which has incorporated AI-driven analysis for over two years, our team processed over 3,000 bills and extracted more than 50 data points from each account to identify optimal contract opportunities.
The audit covered 626 SME sites and 178 commercial and industrial locations, with individual service provided to over 100 property managers. Through competitive tendering and group buying power, we secured exclusive rates and maximum savings for participating sites while identifying numerous accounts on expensive default rates due to expired contracts.
AEMO released updated technical standards for large-scale renewable projects in July 2025,
focusing on grid stability requirements as variable renewable energy penetration continues
to grow. The new standards mandate improved forecasting capabilities and enhanced grid
support services from wind and solar farms, reflecting lessons from the supply instability
experienced during June 2025.
Source: AEMO, July 2025
Our team works with SME, C&I and Strata clients across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Get in touch for a no-obligation portfolio review.
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