Each month, Watt Utilities publishes this Commercial Energy Market Report to keep our clients informed about wholesale electricity price movements across Australia’s east coast. We cover what happened in the spot market, why prices moved, and what it means for businesses managing energy costs. A new edition is released around the 20th of the following month.
Australia’s electricity grid operates through the National Electricity Market (NEM), which connects Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia via a shared transmission network. Wholesale spot prices are set every five minutes through a competitive bidding process managed by AEMO (the Australian Energy Market Operator), the independent body responsible for operating the NEM and ensuring reliable electricity supply. The prices in this report reflect the wholesale spot market and are distinct from the retail rates businesses pay on their energy bills, though sustained movements in the spot market generally feed into retail contract pricing over time. This report covers the mainland NEM only (Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia).
August 2025 delivered stable pricing across the mainland NEM, consolidating the market recovery from June’s turbulent conditions. South Australia saw the largest movement, with prices falling 47.3% from July’s elevated levels despite three high-price intervals during wind lulls. Queensland maintained the most stable conditions with zero high-price events above $1,000/MWh and the highest count of zero or negative pricing intervals. Victoria rose 13.5% as reduced wind generation created pricing pressure, while NSW held broadly steady at $101.25/MWh. Coal plant availability normalised across all states as late-winter conditions stabilised, and forward contract markets saw modest movements in response to updated AEMO generation availability forecasts.
Source: Shell Energy / AEMO
| State | Average Spot Price | Max 5 Min Spot Price | 5 Min Intervals at $1,000+ | 5 Min Intervals at $0 or Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | $78.20 | $915.24 | 0 | 2,255 |
| NSW | $101.25 | $1,118.93 | 1 | 920 |
| VIC | $93.19 | $979.87 | 0 | 1,279 |
| SA | $86.86 | $14,500.00 | 3 | 2,233 |
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO (via Shell Energy Market Summary Report, August 2025)
Source: NEM Spot Market, AEMO. Chart Credit: Shell Energy. Historical data prior to Sep 2025 sourced from Shell Energy 3-year charts.
Forward contract markets responded cautiously to August’s improved spot conditions, with only modest movements in Calendar Year 2026 prices. QLD and NSW contracts saw late-month upward pressure after updated AEMO generation availability data signalled changes to future outage plans, a reminder that forward pricing remains sensitive to thermal reliability signals. SA’s dramatic 47% spot price fall had limited impact on forward curves, with traders focused on summer demand risk rather than current conditions. For businesses assessing renewals ahead of the 2025/26 summer, the current forward curve prices in a risk premium above prevailing spot levels. Those with near-term renewals face limited optionality, while businesses with a longer runway may benefit from monitoring conditions as thermal availability and early summer demand data emerges through September and October.
Average pricing increased to $101.25/MWh in August, a 4.4% rise from July’s $96.95/MWh. Just one interval above $1,000/MWh was recorded for the month, with a maximum five-minute interval of $1,118.93/MWh, reflecting minimal extreme pricing conditions.
NSW experienced minimal volatility through August as coal plant availability remained stable and renewable generation output normalised. The state recorded 920 intervals of zero or negative pricing. The single high-price event occurred during a brief period of tight supply but did not reflect broader system stress across the month.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202508)
Spot pricing decreased to $78.20/MWh in August, down 4.8% from July’s $82.13/MWh. Queensland maintained the most stable mainland market for the month with zero high-price events above $1,000/MWh.
Queensland recorded zero high-price events and 2,255 intervals at or below zero pricing, the highest count among mainland states. Strong solar penetration during daylight hours combined with reliable coal generation output created consistent supply conditions throughout the month, with no material disruption from the outages that affected other regions.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202508)
Spot pricing fell to $86.86/MWh in August, a 47.3% decrease from July’s elevated $164.95/MWh average. The fall reflected fewer extreme events as wind generation performance improved from the significant shortfalls experienced during June and July.
SA recorded three high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh with a maximum of $14,500.00/MWh during wind lulls, alongside 2,233 intervals at or below zero pricing. These are AEMO-published market prices resulting from the bidding process during periods of tight supply. The month demonstrated SA’s characteristic extremes: extended renewable oversupply creating sub-zero prices, punctuated by brief sharp spikes when wind dropped and gas-fired capacity set prices.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202508)
Average pricing rose to $93.19/MWh in August, a 13.5% increase from July’s $82.13/MWh. Zero high-price intervals above $1,000/MWh were recorded, though increased pricing pressure during reduced wind generation periods lifted the monthly average above July’s level.
Victoria recorded 1,279 intervals of zero or negative pricing as renewable generation contributed during stronger wind periods. Mid-month wind lulls created sustained pricing pressure across August 18 and 19, when daily averages exceeded $200/MWh and $207/MWh respectively. These events drove the state’s monthly average higher despite otherwise stable conditions across most of the month.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202508)
Source: Shell Energy Market Summary Report, August 2025 (AEMO fuel mix data)
Coal held 60% of NEM output over the 90-day period to August, with black coal at 44% and brown coal 16%, reflecting continued winter baseload reliance. Wind contributed 19%, with solar, gas and hydro each at 7%. Battery storage provided 1%. Renewables at 26% combined sit below the spring-season levels seen in subsequent months, consistent with reduced solar generation during winter hours and the wind performance issues that contributed to June’s volatility events.
Watt Utilities hosted a staff bonding lunch on September 12 to celebrate R U OK? Day, with team activities including a “WATT makes me happy” board and collaborative colouring exercises. The event reinforced our commitment to workplace wellbeing and creating a supportive environment for mental health conversations across the team.
Our Watts Mine platform, which has incorporated AI-driven analysis for over two years, continues to support client work while the team focuses on building the kind of workplace culture that sustains strong long-term client service. We believe both go together.
On 29 August, the Australian Energy Regulator published revised Network Exemption Guidelines addressing regulatory gaps in embedded networks found in apartment buildings, shopping centres, and business parks. The updates aim to provide comparable consumer protections across all energy customers, regardless of whether they are connected to the main grid or an embedded network within a shared premises.
Source: Australian Energy Regulator, August 2025
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