Renewables supplied 80.4 percent of mainland generation at 12:30pm on Saturday 19 September, the highest share in AEMO’s records. Spot prices fell in all four mainland states, led by South Australia (down 47.3 percent) and Victoria (down 39.0 percent). Forward contract prices rose in every state.
This report covers the mainland National Electricity Market (NEM), the wholesale market run by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Spot prices are what generators are paid in that market. Your retail rate is set separately, but sustained price moves shape what retailers offer at renewal. A new edition is published in the first week of each month.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202609 and WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202608)
| State | Aug-26 ($/MWh) | Sep-26 ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|
| NSW | 75.71 | 65.32 |
| QLD | 60.42 | 57.10 |
| SA | 71.62 | 37.71 |
| VIC | 60.40 | 36.83 |
| State | Monthly Average | Change vs Aug-26 | Peak Day Price | Peak Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | $57.10 | -5.5% | $121.95 | Thu 24 Sep |
| NSW | $65.32 | -13.7% | $110.14 | Wed 23 Sep |
| VIC | $36.83 | -39.0% | $81.37 | Thu 24 Sep |
| SA | $37.71 | -47.3% | $98.47 | Thu 24 Sep |
Source: AEMO daily price data, calculated from WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202609
Source: AEMO monthly average price data (WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_MONTH series, 36-month rolling)
| Period | QLD ($/MWh) | NSW ($/MWh) | VIC ($/MWh) | SA ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-23 | 37.05 | 42.08 | 17.19 | 15.12 |
| Nov-23 | 72.97 | 87.35 | 34.94 | 44.92 |
| Dec-23 | 93.00 | 68.26 | 25.29 | 38.03 |
| Jan-24 | 160.43 | 81.17 | 22.10 | 32.74 |
| Feb-24 | 119.73 | 111.66 | 82.94 | 66.07 |
| Mar-24 | 74.09 | 70.47 | 51.99 | 67.13 |
| Apr-24 | 84.81 | 89.83 | 84.80 | 92.50 |
| May-24 | 92.69 | 273.56 | 132.97 | 135.71 |
| Jun-24 | 124.67 | 152.75 | 164.23 | 176.68 |
| Jul-24 | 119.06 | 127.17 | 149.14 | 241.22 |
| Aug-24 | 130.10 | 174.45 | 143.40 | 149.52 |
| Sep-24 | 49.66 | 58.02 | 17.39 | 80.29 |
| Oct-24 | 70.85 | 77.41 | 20.36 | 35.24 |
| Nov-24 | 177.48 | 219.68 | 64.08 | 60.91 |
| Dec-24 | 134.44 | 134.73 | 52.25 | 61.47 |
| Jan-25 | 114.01 | 83.34 | 48.35 | 48.22 |
| Feb-25 | 74.91 | 90.33 | 68.55 | 91.34 |
| Mar-25 | 79.01 | 89.96 | 61.75 | 61.79 |
| Apr-25 | 98.50 | 104.07 | 74.76 | 88.82 |
| May-25 | 95.63 | 123.02 | 78.05 | 83.31 |
| Jun-25 | 169.34 | 256.20 | 264.60 | 250.40 |
| Jul-25 | 82.13 | 96.95 | 82.13 | 164.95 |
| Aug-25 | 78.20 | 101.25 | 93.19 | 86.86 |
| Sep-25 | 54.35 | 71.24 | 55.27 | 57.60 |
| Oct-25 | 55.66 | 77.02 | 51.37 | 50.17 |
| Nov-25 | 63.05 | 76.93 | 31.92 | 32.48 |
| Dec-25 | 54.38 | 71.36 | 27.51 | 27.92 |
| Jan-26 | 64.03 | 67.22 | 38.55 | 152.25 |
| Feb-26 | 69.87 | 83.76 | 45.06 | 56.00 |
| Mar-26 | 62.64 | 70.36 | 44.74 | 52.80 |
| Apr-26 | 53.31 | 59.73 | 35.68 | 56.18 |
| May-26 | 76.34 | 82.01 | 64.77 | 77.49 |
| Jun-26 | 71.43 | 83.30 | 66.81 | 125.73 |
| Jul-26 | 65.43 | 81.52 | 70.36 | 95.89 |
| Aug-26 | 60.42 | 75.71 | 60.40 | 71.62 |
| Sep-26 | 57.10 | 65.32 | 36.83 | 37.71 |
| State | Calendar Year 2027 base swap | Calendar Year 2028 base swap |
|---|---|---|
| NSW | $104.50 | $102.86 |
| QLD | $85.74 | $84.50 |
| VIC | $74.61 | $82.74 |
| SA | $84.72 | $94.81 |
A base swap is a contract that locks in a fixed price for every hour of the period covered. These closing prices are the reference points retailers price against for businesses renewing in the next 6 to 12 months. All four states rose from mid-September, with NSW calendar 2027 up $16.74 to $104.50. The curve shape differs by state. NSW and QLD ease slightly from 2027 to 2028, while VIC steps up $8.13 and SA steps up $10.09. Where 2028 sits above 2027, a shorter fixed term with the second year reviewed later may suit. In NSW, where near-term prices have risen fastest, partial hedging spreads timing risk instead of fixing the full volume in one week. VIC remains the cheapest mainland state to contract.
Source: ASX Energy AU market wrap, latest weekly close
Average daily spot $57.10/MWh in September 2026, down 5.5 percent on August ($60.42). Peak day Thu 24 Sep at $121.95/MWh. Lowest day Sat 5 Sep at $36.78/MWh.
Queensland had the steadiest prices of the four states and no negative days. A firmer run from 21 to 25 September lifted the average, led by the $121.95 day. The December quarter base contract rose $13.93 in the latest ASX week, a sign the market is pricing more risk into the months ahead.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202609). Dashed line marks $0.
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 42.16 |
| 2 | 45.20 |
| 3 | 46.46 |
| 4 | 53.59 |
| 5 | 36.78 |
| 6 | 41.93 |
| 7 | 56.95 |
| 8 | 65.22 |
| 9 | 57.04 |
| 10 | 68.27 |
| 11 | 61.27 |
| 12 | 49.28 |
| 13 | 37.39 |
| 14 | 39.14 |
| 15 | 43.18 |
| 16 | 53.63 |
| 17 | 51.48 |
| 18 | 50.60 |
| 19 | 47.89 |
| 20 | 58.39 |
| 21 | 87.78 |
| 22 | 62.90 |
| 23 | 89.71 |
| 24 | 121.95 |
| 25 | 70.26 |
| 26 | 52.34 |
| 27 | 44.36 |
| 28 | 68.50 |
| 29 | 63.96 |
| 30 | 45.34 |
Average daily spot $65.32/MWh in September 2026, down 13.7 percent on August ($75.71). Peak day Wed 23 Sep at $110.14/MWh. Lowest day Sat 5 Sep at $39.11/MWh.
New South Wales stayed the dearest mainland state and had no negative days. Prices lifted in the final full week, when the grid’s renewable share fell to its monthly low and coal carried more of the load. The Waratah Super Battery reaching full output on 28 September adds a new buffer for the state’s transmission network.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202609). Dashed line marks $0.
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 45.42 |
| 2 | 46.69 |
| 3 | 53.00 |
| 4 | 66.12 |
| 5 | 39.11 |
| 6 | 56.37 |
| 7 | 68.45 |
| 8 | 78.94 |
| 9 | 73.15 |
| 10 | 78.40 |
| 11 | 72.28 |
| 12 | 56.89 |
| 13 | 42.16 |
| 14 | 51.60 |
| 15 | 42.69 |
| 16 | 56.55 |
| 17 | 66.02 |
| 18 | 57.85 |
| 19 | 47.21 |
| 20 | 56.89 |
| 21 | 96.56 |
| 22 | 87.33 |
| 23 | 110.14 |
| 24 | 102.78 |
| 25 | 78.97 |
| 26 | 56.12 |
| 27 | 75.79 |
| 28 | 73.23 |
| 29 | 64.24 |
| 30 | 58.74 |
Average daily spot $37.71/MWh in September 2026, down 47.3 percent on August ($71.62). Peak day Thu 24 Sep at $98.47/MWh. Lowest day Sun 20 Sep at -$25.67/MWh.
South Australia posted two negative days, both on Sundays when business demand is lowest. A negative daily average means generators, on average across the day, paid to keep producing. Wind and rooftop solar made more power than the state could use. No day reached $100 per MWh.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202609). Dashed line marks $0.
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | 15.49 |
| 2 | 65.02 |
| 3 | 42.01 |
| 4 | 40.86 |
| 5 | 2.38 |
| 6 | 59.22 |
| 7 | 55.32 |
| 8 | 72.15 |
| 9 | 22.78 |
| 10 | 9.10 |
| 11 | 52.58 |
| 12 | 28.29 |
| 13 | 10.71 |
| 14 | 55.88 |
| 15 | 22.80 |
| 16 | 15.93 |
| 17 | 59.88 |
| 18 | 28.66 |
| 19 | 3.66 |
| 20 | -25.67 |
| 21 | 28.27 |
| 22 | 58.87 |
| 23 | 70.88 |
| 24 | 98.47 |
| 25 | 87.64 |
| 26 | 41.72 |
| 27 | -10.57 |
| 28 | 37.61 |
| 29 | 0.41 |
| 30 | 80.83 |
Average daily spot $36.83/MWh in September 2026, down 39.0 percent on August ($60.40). Peak day Thu 24 Sep at $81.37/MWh. Lowest day Sun 20 Sep at -$20.54/MWh.
Victoria recorded five days with a negative daily average. A negative average means generators, on balance across the day, paid to keep producing because rooftop solar and wind exceeded what the grid could use. Sunday 20 September set NEM records for rooftop solar output and Victorian curtailment, and gave Victoria its lowest day.
Source: AEMO (via WEB_AVERAGE_PRICE_DAY_202609). Dashed line marks $0.
| Day | $/MWh |
|---|---|
| 1 | -0.80 |
| 2 | 41.68 |
| 3 | 42.49 |
| 4 | 43.67 |
| 5 | -4.09 |
| 6 | 42.75 |
| 7 | 49.60 |
| 8 | 73.72 |
| 9 | 23.81 |
| 10 | 56.53 |
| 11 | 56.02 |
| 12 | 40.05 |
| 13 | 5.16 |
| 14 | 44.38 |
| 15 | 19.01 |
| 16 | 57.91 |
| 17 | 72.19 |
| 18 | 21.04 |
| 19 | 13.43 |
| 20 | -20.54 |
| 21 | 29.53 |
| 22 | 61.98 |
| 23 | 78.90 |
| 24 | 81.37 |
| 25 | 74.37 |
| 26 | 36.43 |
| 27 | -6.65 |
| 28 | 37.51 |
| 29 | -7.77 |
| 30 | 41.18 |
AEMO tracks the highest and lowest instantaneous share of mainland NEM generation supplied by renewables. The gap between the two shows the range the grid runs between, from sunny middays to still, dark mornings. September set records at both ends.
This is the highest share in AEMO’s renewable penetration records, beating the 78.6 percent set on Saturday 11 October 2025. It came at lunchtime on a sunny spring Saturday, when demand is low and rooftop solar peaks. Distributed PV, which is rooftop solar on homes and businesses, supplied more than half of all generation on its own.
Even September’s low point was high. At 24.9 percent, it is the highest monthly minimum in AEMO’s record export, which runs back to 2018. It came before sunrise on a weekday, with coal supplying close to 70 percent of the grid. It fell in the same week as the month’s highest daily prices in all four mainland states.
For procurement, the gap between these two records is where price risk lives. High-renewable windows push spot prices toward zero or below, as South Australia and Victoria saw on several Sundays. Low-renewable windows, usually early morning and evening, are when prices spike. Retail products that smooth out this swing, such as fixed or capped contracts, carry a premium for that protection.
Source: AEMO NEM data dashboard, renewable penetration record export.
| Event | Date | Time | Renewable share (%) | Total generation (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest | Sat 19 Sep 2026 | 12:30 | 80.4 | 32,506 |
| Lowest | Fri 25 Sep 2026 | 05:30 | 24.9 | 19,631 |
Source: AEMO NEM data dashboard, fuel mix export, past 90 days, mainland states only.
| Fuel type | Share (%) |
|---|---|
| Black coal | 35.1 |
| Brown coal | 14.6 |
| Wind | 17.7 |
| Solar | 22.2 |
| Hydro | 5.2 |
| Gas | 3.0 |
| Battery | 1.8 |
| Biomass | 0.4 |
| Liquid Fuel | 0.0 |
Over the past 90 days, coal supplied 49.7 percent of mainland generation and renewables 47.3 percent. Solar alone supplied 22.2 percent as spring days lengthened. With the split now close to even, price risk sits mainly in the hours when solar fades and coal, gas and batteries must cover the evening peak.
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As our client base grows, so does our data. Our analyst team has started using new AI tools and a more developed CRM to clean, check and organise client information. The project gives us a more detailed and accurate view of each client’s sites and contracts, and makes it faster to find.
AEMO approved the Waratah Super Battery on the NSW Central Coast to run at its full 850 MW and 1,680 MWh capacity, confirmed on 28 September. Built by Akaysha Energy on the former Munmorah power station site, it acts as a shock absorber when major transmission lines are disrupted. A transformer failure had delayed full operation.
Source: pv magazine Australia, September 2026
RenewEconomy reported renewables supplying 79.5 percent of the NEM at 1:30pm on Friday 18 September, based on OpenElectricity data. That beat the previous record of 78.6 percent from October 2025. Rooftop solar was the largest single source at 47.9 percent. AEMO’s own records show the share climbing to 80.4 percent the following day.
Source: RenewEconomy, September 2026
The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) made a final rule on 10 September to streamline payment difficulty protections for household energy customers. Retailers must try at least two contact channels before disconnecting a customer, and must publish plain-language hardship and concession information online. The changes take effect on 30 March 2027.
Source: Australian Energy Market Commission, September 2026
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